FANTASY PLAYOFFS - TOP QUARTERBACKS
Barry LeBrock
It doesn't quite feel like the end of the NFL season, but as the waning moments of a
Thanksgiving hangover meet the reality of a work week Monday, and the last
remaining strands of tryptophan are flushed out of the bloodstream, the regular
fantasy season comes to a close. The next three weeks of NFL action are the
fantasy playoffs. One move can determine
your fantasy fate.
Nobody is suggesting a Peyton Manning for Alex Smith
trade proposal, but basing a quarterback's season-ending expectations solely on
his season-to-date performance is shallow.
And potentially dangerous. Consideration of each QB's most recent
numbers, along with weather conditions. production of Decembers past and the
trio of upcoming opponents are all crucial factors in forecasting how the next
three weeks play out.
All things considered, here are your top ten QB's for the
fantasy playoff season…
1) Tom Brady - Since
the week-4 debacle against the Chiefs, Brady has 22 TD passes against just four
interceptions. In the first month of the
season, he didn't have a single game with more than 250 passing yards. Since then, he hasn't had one of less than
250, while averaging 315 through the air.
Off a bit in the distance is a week-16 match-up against
the pathetic Jets that already has
Brady high-fiving, chest-bumping and helmet crunching his receivers in
celebration. More immediate is a QB-friendly
warm weather match-up at San Diego, followed by a home game against the
Dolphins with a revenge-factor.
Watch out, folks -- he's in Brady Mode. We've seen this
before. It often carries the Pats to the first Sunday in February. Plus, at age 37, he's still dreamy.
Next three: @SD (13), Mia (6), @NYJ (32)
2) Peyton Manning
- How do you stop Peyton Manning? Tell
him it’s the Superbowl. Short of that, maybe rush two, drop nine and force him
to "Omaha!" his lungs out changing every play to a run.
Manning is averaging 323 passing yards per game with his
usual healthy TD/int comparison (34/9).
His most incredible stats though are his ridiculous red
zone numbers.
The "Red Zone" as it applies to the Broncos has
seemingly become anywhere beyond midfield, but for statistical purposes, let's
go with the traditional "Inside the 20," where Manning has completed
56 of 72 (78%) with 22 TD passes and no interceptions. Although he is in
large-part immune to quality-of-defense influence, it's the relatively tough
match-ups ahead that keep him from the top-spot.
Next: Buff (3), @SD (13) @Cin (9)
3) Aaron Rodgers -
Even with the aura and talent of guys like Brady and Manning, somehow its Rodgers
that has become the most dependable QB in the NFL. An absurd ratio of 30 touchdowns against just
three interceptions through 11 games will do that for a guy.
I can hear the Rodgers backers going crazy. "So why #3!?!"
All I can say is R-E-L-A-X.
Two potentially nasty-weather match-ups in the final
three (Home vs. Atl, at Buffalo) knocks him down on this list. Yes, he's as good of a winter QB as there has
ever been, but winning games in bad conditions and putting up big numbers in
bad conditions are two different things and only one of 'em has any meaning in
fantasy.
Next: Atl (14), @Buf (3), @TB (22)
4) Drew Brees -
In most cases, you'd shy away from a 4-7 QB who has engineered the general buffoonery
of one of the most disappointing teams in the league. But 4-7 in the bizarro NFL South is right
smack dab in contention for a division title.
Only Luck and Manning have thrown for more yards than Brees,
who unwraps an early holiday gift of the Carolina, Chicago and Atlanta defenses
in his next three games -- two of which are in New Orleans. Who knows, the high-expectation Saints might
even claw their way to .500. You can
almost feel the ghost of Tom Benson busting out some netherworld umbrella and
getting ready to boogie on the sidelines.
Next: Car (27), @Chi (31), Atl (14)
5) Andrew Luck - A
few more seasons like this and he might need Tommy John surgery. In week-1, Luck threw 53 passes, and has
barely slowed down. He's been through an
8-game stretch in which he had at least 39 attempts in each. Add 'em up and it's a league-leading 264
attempts and a third best 29 TDs (Manning 34, Rodgers 30).
He's averaging 29.3 fantasy PPG and has visions of the
crumbling Dallas defense in a week 16 match-up dancing in his head. After nine interceptions in his first eight
games, Luck has thrown just one in his last three.
Next: @Cle (7), Hou (15), @Dal (19)
6) Tony Romo
- The next three match-ups are against
the #'s 31, 28 and 17 defenses in Fantasy points allowed (FPA) to QB's. Those stats say he's your guy. My eyes say be careful. I expected Romo to carve up the Eagles on
Thanksgiving the way I carved up that poor turkey. (OK, busted. My wife did it.)
Philly's defense came into that game ranked in the bottom
5 in the NFL in FPA, but shut down Romo from the start (18-29, 199 yds, 0 TD's,
2 Ints). Awaiting the Cowboys in week 15? That same Eagles defense -- this time at their place. Throw in a potentially snowy and windy
week-14 match up in Chicago, and I can't stack Romo higher than this.
Next: @Chi (31), @Phil (28), Ind (17)
7) Russell Wilson
- Question for ya: Who was the MVP
of last year's Superbowl when Seattle dismantled Denver 43-8?
Hard to believe, but heading into the Thanksgiving match-up
at San Francisco, Wilson had averaged less than 188 passing yards in his
previous five match-ups. And after
throwing eight touchdown passes in his first four games, he has managed just seven in the eight games
since.
Where Wilson gives you a fantasy scoring boost is on the
ground. He has five games of 70+ rushing yards and three of 100+. Given Seattle's precarious playoff position,
you have to believe the ultra-competitive Wilson will be more than willing to
run, injuries be damned.
By the way, last year's Superbowl MVP? Not Wilson… linebacker Malcom Smith. Remember? Yeah, me neither.
Next: @Phil (28),
SF (2), @Az (8)
8) Ben
Roethlisberger - I never think of Roethlisberger as an efficient QB. My perception of
him is of a caked-in-mud, shrug-off-tacklers for a 9-yard pass on 3rd-and-8,
overcome 2 interceptions, win-ugly quarterback whose victory totals usually trump
his stats. The reality of it though is that
only Manning, Rodgers and Romo have a better passer rating this season than Big
Ben's 105.3. Yes, he had some monster
games, but his 24/6 TD/Int ratio is what it is, and speaks for itself. He's a proven winner and this is his time of
year.
Next: @Cin (9), @Atl (14), KC (10)
9) Ryan Tannehill
- Is it me, or has Tannehill actually become an upper-tier quarterback? Not elite -- upper-tier. I'm, not saying he's Dan Marino. I'm just saying he's not Jay Fiedler. He makes good decisions, manages drives
intelligently and puts the Dolphins in position to win just about every week.
He has more fantasy points than Rivers, Romo and Stafford, and more TD passes
than Wilson, Ryan and Kaepernick. The only thing keeping him from moving higher
on this list is the fact that he gets no consideration for facing the porous
Jets defense, which he did in week 13 and will again in week 17.
Next: Balt (24), @NE (17), Min (10)
10) Phillip Rivers
- He's on pace to throw for more than 4,000 yards for the 6th time in the
last seven seasons. With the Chargers almost non-existent ground game (3.3
yds/att, 2nd worse in the NFL) they'll be going to the air more and more as
they fight for a playoff spot. The
schedule ahead looks daunting with the Patriots, Broncos and 49ers
awaiting. Look a bit closer though, and
rolling the dice with Rivers seems a better bet. New England is #17 in FPA to QB's and Denver is
#30.
Next: NE (17), Den (30), @SF (2)
Dishonorable
Mention - Jay Cutler - He's the only QB in the league with three home games
in weeks 14-16. But start Jay
Cutler? I would sooner go with Jay
Leno. Or Jessica Cutler (10 fantasy
points for knowing her claim to
fame.)
Cutler's Thanksgiving day performance in Detroit was
underwhelming and uninspired. It's mind-boggling how ineffective Chicago's
offense has been considering their wealth of skill-position talent, and when
that is the case, all signs (and fingers) point to the quarterback.
In related news, the Bears have hired the lawfirm of
"Weegot, Swindled and Howe" to comb through Cutler's recently signed
$126M contract looking for a way out.
Next three: Dal (19), NO (21), Det (4)
